Start with your home size and insulation
A rough rule of thumb:
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Poorly insulated home: ~7–10 gallons of oil per 1,000 sq. ft. per day in very cold weather
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Average insulation: ~5–7 gallons per 1,000 sq. ft. per day
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Well-insulated or newer home: ~3–5 gallons per 1,000 sq. ft. per day
Example:
A 2,000 sq. ft. well-insulated home may use around 4 gallons/day, or roughly 480–600 gallons over a 5-month winter.